Formula 1 Driver Transfer Predictions: Who's Moving Where in the 2024 Season?

Formula 1 is a sport that thrives on constant change and evolution, and one of the most exciting parts of each season is the speculation and anticipation surrounding driver transfers. With drivers moving between teams, new partnerships are formed, rivalries intensify, and unexpected outcomes can arise. Fans eagerly await the announcement of which drivers will be moving to different teams, and the anticipation only grows as rumors and speculation swirl around potential transfers. In this article, we will dive into the world of Formula 1 driver transfers and take a look at the most current predictions and rumors for who might be moving to which team for the upcoming season. From high-profile transfers to unexpected moves, we'll explore the possibilities and discuss the potential impact that these transfers could have on the sport as a whole. So, buckle up and get ready to explore the world of Formula 1 driver transfers. I will talk about the teams in alphabetical order.

BWT Alpine F1 Team:

• Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly - the all-French driver pairing for the only French Formula 1 team appears to be a very exciting combination for the 2023 season. Both drivers still have contracts also for 2024, so it's unlikely that we see any changes in the driver line-up.
• Probability to keep the same line-up: 5 out of 5.

Aston Martin Aramco Cognizant F1 Team:

• Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll - A great mix of a very experienced former world champion in Fernando and a young and talented Lance, the Aston Martin project started this year has all the chances to continue also in 2024.
• Probability to keep the same line-up: 5 out of 5.

Scuderia Ferrari:

• Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz - Both drivers still have a contract until the end of 2024 and seem to have a great relationship between them. Given also the close qualifying gap and race pace existing between them, Ferrari has a very competitive line-up.
• Probability to keep the same line-up: 5 out of 5.

MoneyGram Haas F1 Team:

• Kevin Magnussen and Niko Hulkenberg: After the experience of competing with two rookie drivers, Haas now has a line-up of experienced drivers. Both drivers will contribute to the development of the car for the "poorest" team on the grid, so most probably Haas will choose to continue with both drivers also in 2024.
• Probability to keep the same line-up: 4 out of 5.

McLaren F1 Team:

• Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri - A very exciting young driver pairing for McLaren in 2023. What could go wrong for 2024? Lando being tempted by a move to another team, given the difficulties McLaren has been having to provide a race-winning car or Oscar completely failing to meet any expectations. As both have a contract also for 2024, there is a high chance we will see this pairing also for next year.
• Probability to keep the same line-up: 4 out of 5.

Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team:

• Lewis Hamilton and George Russel - Lewis wants a new chance at a world title, so winning it in 2023 might raise a risk for him still being on the grid in 2024. But if that doesn't happen, it is unlikely that he would change teams this late in his career and he will give it another go alongside Mercedes. The risk though is still there, as Lewis does not have a contract also for 2024 yet. George represents the future of the team, so he will continue with the team also in 2024.
• Probability to keep the same line-up: 3 out of 5.

Oracle Red Bull Racing:

• Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo - Max Verstappen is at the top of his game and Red Bull is offering him the best car on the grid. In the same time, he has a contract until 2028, so it's highly unlikely he will not be on the grid for Red Bull also in 2024. In the same time, the pressures on Sergio Perez have been gathering up and given the fact that there is a significant gap to Max and his contract is up this year, alongside with the addition of Daniel Ricciardo as a Reserve Driver, means that there is a high chance that Red Bull will not choose to keep Checo also for 2024.
• Probability to keep the same line-up: 2 out of 5.

Williams Racing:

• Logan Sargent and Felipe Drugovich - The appeal of having an American driver in the line-up, now that Formula 1 has 3 races in the US will appeal to the Williams owners, so Logan will most probably retain his seat for another year. The relationship with Mercedes will most probably promote Aston Martin reserve driver Felipe Drugovich to the second seat for 2024, if Alex Albon decides to leave.
• Probability to keep the same line-up: 2 out of 5.

Alfa Romeo F1 Team Stake:

• Valtteri Bottas and Alex Albon - Valtteri is really enjoying himself right now in Formula 1 and the perspective of Audi joining the team in 2026 might be very exciting for him. At the same time, Audi will want an experienced driver, in the beginning, to help the team develop and integrate a new engine. Alex Albon will want a better team after two very good seasons at Williams and an opening at a future Audi team will be very appealing. Zhou will lose his seat due to his lack of results.
• Probability to keep the same line-up: 2 out of 5.

Scuderia AlphaTauri:

• Yuki Tsunoda and Sergio Perez - Yuki will establish himself as the team leader during this year, reason for which he will be kept also for 2024 and prepared as a potential candidate for the Red Bull second seat in case a second driver is needed. Sergio will most probably want to continue in Formula 1 and choose to move to the Red Bull sister team, remaining in the family.
• Probability to keep the same line-up: 1 out of 5.

As the end of the Formula 1 season approaches, the sport gears up for what is commonly known as the "silly season." This is the time when rumors and speculation surrounding driver transfers run rampant, and fans eagerly await news about who will be moving to which team. The silly season can be a time of excitement and anticipation, as drivers and teams shuffle their lineups in hopes of finding the winning combination. But it can also be a time of uncertainty and anxiety for drivers, as they navigate negotiations and try to secure their future in the sport. Who do you think will keep or lose his seat in 2023?